[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 29W south of
14N and is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are currently associated with this feature, seen
from 06N-08N between 28W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along an axis of 51W south of
15N moving westward near 20 kt. This feature continues to be well
defined on satellite and TPW also depicts a deep moisture area in
addition to the inverted-v shape behind it. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen with this wave, from 07N-13N between 49W-
53W. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by
Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast from Guinea- Bissau
near 12N15W and continues to 08N21W. The ITCZ begins near 08N21W
and continues to 07N28W, then continues west of a tropical wave
near 07N29W to 06N50W. The ITCZ continues west of another tropical
wave near 06N52W and continues to the coast of Suriname/Guyana
near 06N57W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered
moderate convection is seen moving off the coast of Africa from
06N-09N between 11W-16W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are
also seen along the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 36W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough continues to extend across Texas and
northern Mexico. This is bringing strong upper-level southwest
winds across the western Gulf, ushering in abundant moisture into
the area. A mid-level ridge continues to be centered over the
Gulf, with a 1017 mb surface high analyzed near 26N85W. A trough
is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N95W. An area
of strong thunderstorms continues to meander north in the western
Gulf off the Mexican coast, from 22N- 24N between 96W- 98W. There
is also an area of isolated thunderstorms in the central Gulf from
27N-29N between 87W-89W. Winds in the eastern Gulf are gentle to
moderate out of the north, with light winds in the central basin.
In the western Gulf, moderate southeasterly winds are observed.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming
weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. A
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day and
move into the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds to the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends across the northeastern Caribbean
southwestward into central America. Strong upper-level southwest
to west winds are southeast of the trough. These winds are
advecting abundant upper- level moisture in the form of broken
high clouds across the eastern Caribbean. Isolated thunderstorms
are seen in the NW Caribbean well off the southern Cuban coast.
Numerous strong thunderstorms are seen off the Panama and Costa
Rica coastline from 09N-11N between 80W-83W. Moderate to fresh
trades are seen in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean
with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected each night off the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave
will move across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean
Thursday and Friday, then move into the central Caribbean Friday
night, accompanied by gusty winds and rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp upper level trough is over the western Atlantic. At the
surface, a stationary front is analyzed from 31N57W to 26N69W. A
pre-frontal trough is seen from 31N57W to 23N61W. Thunderstorms
are seen at the tail-end of the stationary front from 23N-27N
between 64W-68W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen near the
southern Bahamas. A trough is off the Florida coast from 30N78W to
25N79W, with no significant convection associated with it.
Otherwise, a ridge sits across the rest of the basin, with a 1029
mb high near 33N33W with tranquil weather prevailing across the
area.

A stationary front extending 30N60W to 24N72W will lift northward
while dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will build in
northern waters Thursday through Friday night, and persist
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of
Hispaniola Friday and Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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