[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031001 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 26W from
04N-20N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows
an apparent northern mid-level vorticity on the wave near 14N26W.
The latest TPW imagery animation continues to depict increasing
moisture east of the wave's axis in an inverted-V shape. However
since the wave is moving through stable environment, the observed
moisture is rather capped allowing for only isolated showers and
thunderstorms within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from
04N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 03N-
17N is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model diagnostics depict this
wave very well. The TPW satellite animation shows a very deep
moisture area, also in an inverted-V shape, behind this wave from
04N-15N between 40W-46W. Deep convection consisting of the
scattered moderate to isolated intensity is increasing behind the
wave from 06N-10N between 40W-45W. In addition, a trade wind
surge trails this wave. This wave is forecast to impact the
eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri, bringing enhanced showers
and thunderstorms with gusty winds.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 80W and south
of 16N, is moving westward at about 17 kt. The majority of this
wave is passing underneath a subsidence area denoting dry air
present to the north and west of an upper-level trough. Both
IR GOES-16 imagery and the TPW satellite animation show
atmospheric moisture confined to south of 13N and between
76W and 80W, which is also the area where the eastern segment of
the E Pacific monsoon trough is found. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring within this area of moisture.

The earlier tropical wave that was analyzed over Central America
has advance into the eastern Pacific along 87W. Its northern
portion extends to eastern El Salvador and the central part
of Honduras. No shower or thunderstorm is occurring over these
countries in direct association with this wave as dry air aloft
behind the upper-level trough gradually advects westward over
Honduras and Nicaragua

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues to 09N25W. Latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ west of the tropical
along 26W at 08N28W and continues to just east of the tropical
wave along 46W at 06N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of this same
tropical wave at 06N47W and continues to near 05N52W. Aside from
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves
as described above, scattered moderate to strong convection exists
from 08N to 14N east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W-42W and within 30 nm
of the ITCZ between 34W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

Upper-level troughing extends from central Texas to an upper-level
low over north-central Mexico. Associated upper-level strong
southwest winds cover far western Gulf. These winds continue to
advect abundant moisture northward over the western Gulf. The
earlier observed scattered moderate convection over the
northwest Gulf has weakened and diminished in coverage.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of
25N between 89W-96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere west of 90W. Expect for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop again today over much of the western
and north-central Gulf as deep moisture remains in place. This
activity is expected to decrease some tonight and Thu as the
aforementioned upper-level trough and low weaken.

A weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf through the
upcoming weekend, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the region. A trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day and move across the Bay of Campeche during the
evening, bringing fresh to locally strong winds to the SW Gulf
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

An upper-level trough extends from well northeast of the Caribbean
to across the northeastern Caribbean, then to a weak upper-level
low at 17N71W and southwestward to a base at 10N81W. Strong
upper-level southwest to west winds are southeast of the trough.
These winds are advecting abundant upper-level moisture in the
form of broken high clouds east-northeastward to across the across
the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are south of 13N and between 76W-65W. Dry sinking
air is situated to the northwest of the upper-level trough to near
82W, where skies are relatively cloud free except for small
pockets of scattered low clouds. This section of the Caribbean
remains under the SE periphery of mid to upper-level ridging
present over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and
low pressure in Colombia will support strong to near gale force
winds each night off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela
through Sat. Moderate to fresh trades will continue elsewhere
across the Caribbean the next several days. A tropical wave is
forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri,
likely reaching the central Caribbean from Fri night into Sat. It
will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong
gusty winds can be expected with this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front was analyzed at 00Z along a position from near 32N55W
to 30N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 28N67W
and to 28.5N70W where it begins to dissipate to 31N75W. A rather
sharp upper trough is over this cold front. A pre-frontal trough
extends from near 30N58W to 29N61W to 26N70W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are observed within 210 nm southeast
of the front north of 29N and 120 nm southeast of the trough.
Farther south a surface trough is approaching the Leeward Islands
along a position from near 19N57W to 14N58W. Isolated showers are
within 60 nm either side of the trough. Elsewhere, high pressure
ridging covers the eastern Atlantic east of 50W, anchored by a
1029 mb high centered near 35N30W.

The cold front and stationary front is forecast to dissipate
by early this evening. High pressure will build over northern
waters Thu through Sat night, which will support pulsing fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola each evening through Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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