[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over
the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight
through the morning hours. Expect seas heights ranging from 10
to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from
15N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface
component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from
04N-08N between 29W-33W.

A Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 60W from 15N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
are within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 08N-
11N.

An central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W
from 19N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence
prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this
time. TPW imagery also shows lack of moisture on either side of
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 11N19W. The ITCZ continues from 11N19W to
06N29W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N33W to
05N53W near the coast of Brazil. Excluding the convection near
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen along the monsoon trough from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
to 18W, along the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 22W-29W, from 03N-07N
between 33W-37W, and closer to the coast of Brazil from 05N-08N
between 51W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation prevails across the western
Gulf while ridging is in place across the eastern Gulf. The
upper level southerly flow will continue to bring tropical
moisture into the Gulf enhancing scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the western Gulf from 19N-24N between
94W-97W and scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche and the
eastern Gulf W of 90W. Besides the gusty winds from the convection,
light to moderate east to southeast winds prevails across much of
the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week.
A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons
and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche during the
evening hours and into the morning through Thu, bringing fresh to
locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche
during the evening and overnight hours. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over much of the central Gulf and over
SW Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche will shift to the northern
Gulf areas by late Tue. This activity may be accompanied by strong
gusty winds, possible frequent lightning and at times, rough
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave
currently moving across the Caribbean and the Gale warning in
effect.

Upper level ridge controls the western Caribbean while an east
to west trough extends from the Atlantic through the central
Caribbean Sea. TPW shows a lack of low level moisture across much
of the basin with the exception of higher moisture content is
present extending from the Gulf of Honduras to Cuba. However,
drier air continues to move westward into the western Caribbean
limiting the convection development in the region. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the coast of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua associated to the Pacific monsoon
trough. Some scattered showers are seen near the ABC Islands
from 10N-13N between 63W-70W. Elsewhere, due to the presence of
dry air and subsidence, no significant convection is noted in the
basin.

Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the basin with
strong to gale force tonight over the central and SW Caribbean Sea.

The combination of a a strong pressure gradient between the
Bermuda high and lower than typical low pressure over northern
Colombia is currently allowing for minimal gale force winds to
exist just offshore Colombia along with high seas. These winds
will diminish to just below gale force later this morning.
However, the strong gradient will continue to allow for strong to
near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean
through the remainder of the week, with moderate to fresh trades
expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic. This is supporting scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 26N-30N between 60W-74W. Further east, a
weakening stationary front extends from 30N47W to 26N57W, and
another dissipating stationary front extends from 31N-36N between
26N41W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 42N20W. Light to
gentle tradewinds prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong
winds are noted south of 18N.

A relatively weak high pressure ridge will remain along 24N through
Wed before shifting northward to near 27N by late on Thu. A weak
cold front will move across the waters N of 27N tonight into Tue,
then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas by early Tue
evening. The front will slowly dissipate through Wed night. Ahead
of this front, fresh to strong southwest winds are expected over
the northeast forecast waters this afternoon and tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are well ahead of
the front N of 27N and E of 76W. This activity will gradually
shift east- southeastward through early on Wed before decreasing
as it lifts northward Wed through Fri night with the remnants of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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