[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISION-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Forecast Outlook for the
24 hr period beginning 00 UTC Saturday shows the threat of gale-
force winds for the areas Agadir and Tarfaya near the coast of
Morocco.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 00N17W to 02S20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 03S-05N between 05W-24W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also seen within 180 nm N and 120 nm S of
the ITCZ between 27W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb surface low is along the coast of southern Texas near
27N97W. A surface trough extends S along the coast of Mexico from
the low to 19N96W. A recent ASCAT pass from 01/0250 UTC shows E-W
surface troughing along 26N in the western and central Gulf of
Mexico, so a new feature - either a trough or a front - will
likely be added to the 06 UTC surface analysis. Aloft, a small,
relatively weak upper-level trough is located over Texas.
Satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that there is a weak
mid-level disturbance in the vicinity, accompanying the upper-
level trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over
the northern Gulf of Mexico, N of 25N between 88W-96W, enhanced by
the features mentioned above aloft and at the surface. A large
area of strong to locally near gale winds are observed from 24N-
29N between 88W-95W. A separate surface trough is analyzed
extending from South Florida to the Florida Keys to near 24N85W.
Scattered showers are noted near southeast Florida and in the
western Florida Straits. High pressure ridging from the Carolinas
continues for the NE Gulf east of about 87W.

A trough or weak frontal boundary over the western Gulf will
linger through the end of the week, along with a weak low pressure
area along it, before shifting NE Sat and Sat night. Otherwise,
broad high pressure ridging over the Carolinas will linger through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh tradewinds prevail over much of the Caribbean Sea, with a
recent ASCAT pass showing strong to near gales near the coast of
Colombia. A few typical patches of broken low clouds and isolated
showers are moving W with the trades over the E Caribbean and in
the NW Caribbean, but no significant convection is noted.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia. Otherwise, mainly
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from South Florida to the Florida Keys.
Scattered showers are noted near southeast Florida. A stationary
front extends from 32N58W to 26N66W and across the SE Bahamas to
22N76W. Scattered showers are noted along the front NE of the
Bahamas, with isolated showers over the central Bahamas. To the
E, a pair of surface troughs are noted. One extends along 48W from
17N-25N and the other extends from 19N41W to 16N44W. These
features are in an area where an upper-level low prevails, near
20N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N-20N
between 41W-45W. High pressure covers the area N of 27N between
23W-50W.

Weak troughing across the western Bahamas to S Florida will drift
NW and N through the end of the week, with a weak low pressure
area possibly developing along it, before shifting NE through the
upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, an old frontal boundary from 28N65W
to eastern Cuba will drift NW through Sat, becoming diffuse.
Otherwise, broad high pressure will prevail on either side of the
boundaries.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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