[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of W Africa near
10N14W to 08N18W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01N30W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along the
boundaries from 01N-06N between 15W-30W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 03N-06N between 10W-15W and from 00N-02N
between 30W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay Florida to 21N93W to
18N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the front
between 84W-89W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds
behind the front over the central Gulf. Surface ridging is
building over the western Gulf, with a 1025 mb surface high
centered over the NW corner of Louisiana.

The cold front will stall today across the southern Gulf along
22N-23N. The western part of the front will drift northward on
Thu while the eastern part of the front will remain nearly
stationary across the Straits of Florida while dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N76W to
western Jamaica near 18N78W, then becomes weak to 16N81W.
Cloud cover and isolated showers are noted over Haiti, Jamaica,
eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters N of 17N between 71W-79W.
Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail E of 76W with strongest winds
in the southern Caribbean.

The stationary front will continue to dissipate today. High
pressure will then build N of the area by tonight, strengthening
winds over the south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N79W and continues to near New
Smyrna Beach Florida near 29N81W to Tampa Bay. No significant
convective activity is noted. Scatterometer shows fresh to strong
winds on both sides of the front. A stationary front is over the
W Atlantic from Bermuda to 23N73W to E Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and within 120 nm E of the front N
of 27N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm E of the front from 23N-
27N. Fresh S winds are within 210 nm E of the front N of 27N.

Farther E, a surface trough extends from 28N37W to 24N43W to
18N47W. This trough is the reflection at the surface of a broad
upper-level low spanning from 16N-28N between 37W-47W. Numerous
moderate convection is E of the trough axis from 13N-21N between
36W-43W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
elsewhere from 12N-26N between 34W-45W.

The cold front that extends from 31N79W to Tampa Bay into the
Gulf will move E and merge with the stationary front that extends
from Bermuda to E Cuba later today. The merged front will reach
from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas by this evening, then stall again.
The front will dissipate over the forecast waters Thu night into
Fri. By that time, a trough may develop E of Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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