[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is located over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 30N91W to
26N97W to 24N99W at 0900 UTC. N gales are occurring W of the
front, as confirmed by buoy observations. N gales are expected to
continue W of the front as it moves S along the coast of Mexico
today. Seas will build to 11 ft W of the front. These conditions
will continue through tonight. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and extends to 06N19W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N-06N
between 04W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from south-central Louisiana
near 30N91W to 26N97W, inland into NE Mexico to 24N99W and
continuing NW farther inland over N Mexico. Surface observations
indicate that N winds W of the front are in the 30 to 35 kt range
over a large area. See section above for details on the gales.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the north-central Gulf
inside the area bounded by 30N85W 26N88W 25N96W 30N93W. A 1019 mb
surface high is centered over northern Florida near 29N83W.

The cold front over the NW Gulf will push E and S today. A large
area of near gales with frequent gusts to gale force is expected
to continue through early this morning in the NW Gulf. Northerly
gales are also expected west of the front along the coast of
Mexico later today. The front will move SE and stall over the
southern Gulf from the Straits of Florida to southern Mexico Wed,
then drift northward and weaken through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N76W to 18N79W
to S Nicaragua near 11N84W. Isolated showers are noted within 90
nm of the front. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail E of 76W
with strongest winds in the southern Caribbean just N of Venezuela
and Colombia.

The stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the border
between Nicaragua and Costa Rica will dissipate through Wed
morning. High pressure will build N of the area by the middle of
the week, strengthening winds over the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N68W to 24N74W. A
stationary front continues from 24N74W to E Cuba near 21N76W.
Strong S winds are E of the front N of 26N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm E of the front N of 29N. Scattered
showers prevail within 120 nm E of the front from the SE Bahamas
to 29N. Further E, a surface trough extends from 29N35W to 23N40W
to 18N47W. An upper-level trough axis runs from 32N31W to 25N40W
to 10N50W with two embedded upper-level lows noted on water vapor
satellite imagery near 32N33W and 25N40W, respectively. The
combination of the surface and upper-level features is enhancing
scattered moderate rainshowers from 24N-32N between 26W-41W.

The cold front extending from 32N68W to the southern Bahamas will
stall and weaken tonight and Wed over the forecast waters. Another
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this evening then
stall from 30N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by
Thu afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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