[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to 22N77W then
across the W Caribbean. Gale force winds are noted on both sides
of the front over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 65W. These
conditions will continue through this evening. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

The next cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico by early Tue
morning. Northerly gale-force winds are expected NW of the front
as it moves off the Texas coast, with seas building to 10-12 ft W
of the front. These conditions will continue through early Wed. Please
refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. No significant convection is observed
at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the north central Gulf of
Mexico near 26N90W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 27N,
while moderate to fresh winds are noted in scatterometer data S of
27N.

The high pressure will move NE away from the basin tonight.
The next cold front will enter the Gulf by early Tue. Northerly
gale winds are expected NW of the front as it moves S across the
basin. The front will stall over the southern Gulf from the
Straits of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico on Wed then drift N
and weaken through Fri. High pressure N of the front will
generate fresh to strong E to SE winds N of the boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to 12N83W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh
N winds are in the W Caribbean W of the front. Moderate tradewinds
prevail elsewhere with strongest winds N of Venezuela/Colombia.

The front will stall from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua
tonight, then will gradually dissipate through Wed. A reinforcing
front will move across the Straits of Florida Thu morning and
stall. High pres will build SE from the Atlantic into the NE
Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic late Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to 22N77W then
across the W Caribbean. Gale force winds are on both sides of the
front. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. Further E, a 1014 mb low
is centered over the E Atlantic near 23N38W. A surface trough
extends from 30N33W to the low center to 14N44W. Scattered
showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough N of the low.

Expect for the gale winds over the W Atlantic to continue through
this evening. The front will stall from 31N65W to E central Cuba
by Tue evening. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida
coast Tue night and sink SE to stall from 30N65W to NW Bahamas and
Straits of Florida Thu afternoon. High pressure following this
front will produce fresh to strong NE to E winds NW of the front
through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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