[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A recent scatterometer pass detected gale-force winds over the
eastern Gulf from 26N-27.5N between 85W-87W. These conditions will
continue through the morning hours. By then, a cold front will be
entering the northwest Gulf, and gale force NW to N winds are
expected behind the front over the waters from Texas to Veracruz,
mainly W of 93W. These winds will follow the front through the
next 24 hours. For additional information, please read the High
Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gale-force
winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at
least Wed night. For additional information, please read the High
Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic on Thu. SW gale force winds are forecast on Thu morning
ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet.
These winds will continue east of the front as it moves east
across the Atlantic through Fri. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco...

Meteo France is forecasting gale-force winds on Wed near the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo
France outlook for Thu calls for the possibility of gales in
AGADIR and TARFAYA. For additional information, please visit the
Meteo France website at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 32W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 mb surface high centered over the northeast Atlantic
extends a ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system over
the south-central U.S. and northern Mexico is being supported by a
large amplitude mid-upper level trough over the central U.S. The
pressure gradient in between the high and low pressure systems is
currently inducing strong to gale force S winds over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Refer to the section above for information about the
Gale Warnings in effect for the basin.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Wed morning, a
few hours prior to sunrise. Showers are thunderstorms are likely
over the Gulf of Mexico prior to and along with the frontal
passage. NW-N gale winds are expected over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Wed behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish
across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region.
Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Typical scattered trade winds showers cover portions of the
eastern Caribbean E of 75W. At the middle and upper levels,
anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea. However, at the
surface, strong high pressure north of the area is inducing
widespread fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean.
Expect strong NE to E winds across much of the Caribbean through
Thu, with gale winds pulsing off Colombia, as strong high
pressure north of the area remains in place. See the section
above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in
effect. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the
Caribbean, highest from 10N-16N between 74W-80W, where 10-15 ft
seas are expected. Farther east, large NW swell will move into
Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night. Winds and
seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts
east ahead of another cold front. This front is expected to move
into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and
dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 32N50W to 26N56W to 22N67W. It continues
as a stationary front from 22N67W to 20N74W. A surface trough is
just east of the front from 25N54W to 23N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted E of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W-
50W. This activity is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in
the area. However, strong winds around 25 kt and high seas
currently cover most of the Atlantic to the north of the Lesser
and Greater Antilles.

The cold front extending from near 22N65W to the Windward Passage
will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of
the front will prevail through the day before retreating eastward
ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida by
early Thu. Gale-force winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of the
front on Thu. See the section above for details. The front will
stall and weaken from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Low pressure
may develop along the front Sat near the northern Bahamas and move
northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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