[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Thu night and increase to at or near gale-force
near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf tonight. Gale force
NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind the front in the
western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. For
additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
00N30W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01S-03N between 18W-29W, and from
02S-03N between 31W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 mb surface high over W Pennsylvania extends a ridge
southward over the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign
weather and moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to
overcast low level stratocumulus clouds still covers the central
Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging also covers the Gulf of Mexico
with strong subsidence.

Fresh to strong SE flow will spread from the northwest Gulf
across the basin today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas
coast tonight. Strong NW winds will follow the front, reaching
gale force over the western Gulf Wed. Winds and seas diminish
across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region.
Looking ahead, SE flow will increase again Sat ahead of another
front moving off the Texas coast Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Windward Passage
near 20N73W to W Jamaica near 18N78W. The front becomes
stationary from 18N78W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E of 82W.
Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the front. Fresh
to strong NE winds prevail within 240 nm NW of the front, with
moderate to fresh winds closer to the Yucatan Channel. Only
typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico.

A stalled and weakening frontal boundary from the Windward
Passage to eastern Honduras will dissipate today. Strong high
pressure north of the area behind the front will maintain strong
NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales
pulsing off Colombia. Winds and seas will diminish late in the
week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front
expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The
second front will stall then dissipate from central Cuba to
central Honduras by late Fri. Looking ahead, a third front will
enter the northwest Caribbean Sun and reach from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Farther east, NW swell will move
into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic cold front will become stationary from north of
Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage late today then
dissipate through Thu. High pressure building north of the area in
the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds through
mid week. Strong southerly winds will develop off northeast
Florida by Thu ahead of another cold front, reaching gale force
north of 30N. Winds and seas will diminish through late week as
the front continues east, stalling and weakening from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Sat. Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will form
along the front Sun in the northern Bahamas and move northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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