[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1214 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Thu night and increase to at or near gale-force
near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday
morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected Wednesday behind
the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W
of 93W. For additional information, please read the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01N21W to 00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-02N between 18W-28W, and from
02S-02N between 30W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1038 mb surface high over Ohio extends a ridge southward over
the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and
moderate winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast low
level stratocumulus clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to
upper level ridging also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong
subsidence.

Strong high pressure ridging extending southward over the Gulf
from the central United States will shift eastward toward Cape
Hatteras as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. This
will allow for strong southerly winds to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning and the remainder of the basin by
Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf early on Wed followed by gale force northwest to north winds
over the far western Gulf from southern Texas to the coast of
Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf
to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it exits the SE
Gulf Thu night. High pressure will build across the area in the
wake of the front through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Windward Passage
near 20N74W to W Jamaica near 18N78W. The front becomes
stationary from 18N78W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 16N and E of 82W.
Isolated showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the front.
Fresh to strong NE winds prevail within 240 nm NW of the front,
with moderate to fresh winds closer to the Yucatan Channel. Only
typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force
along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
through tonight. A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N78W,
then becomes stationary to northeastern Honduras. The front
weaken through Tue evening. Strong high pressure building over the
western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin
Tue through Fri. This will result in strong trades over most of
the eastern and central Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will
affect the lee of Cuba, and also blow through the Mona and
Windward passages, especially Wed through Thu. Winds and seas will
subside over most areas Fri through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N63W to the Windward Passage
near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within
240 nm E of the front N of 25N. Scattered showers are along and
within 150 nm E of the front S of 25N. Winds of 20-25 kt prevail
near and west of the front. Broken to overcast low level
stratocumulus clouds are W of the front to Florida. A surface
trough is along 49/50W from 20N-26N. East of 40W, mostly quiet
weather prevails due to broad high pressure ridging. However,
fresh to strong trades cover most of the E Atlantic from 20N-30N.
The forecast from Meteo France mentions that near gales are likely
occurring now near the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of
TARFAYA and AGADIR. These near gales are expected to persist in
that area into Thursday.

Over the W Atlantic, the tail end of the front will become
stationary from north of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage
by Wed evening. Strong north to northeast winds will develop
between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds
north of the front. These winds will persist until early Thu as
the strong high pressure shifts eastward over the western Atlantic
waters north of the area. Another strong cold front will move off
the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. The front will reach from
near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri
afternoon, from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri
night and from near 31N66W to 25N72W and stationary to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Strong to gale
force southerly winds will precede the front along with building
seas through Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow in behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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