[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
556 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Thursday night and increase to at or near gale-
force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
and extends to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 10W-23W, and from
04S-05N between 24W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broken to overcast layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds
prevails over most of the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cold airmass
over warm waters. High pressure ridging has moved into the Gulf
with axis along 90W.

Expect strong SE to S return flow to develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning and over the remainder of the basin
by Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Wed and produce gale force NW to N winds over
the far western Gulf from S Texas to the coast of Mexico near
Veracruz. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf to the
Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then weaken as it exits the SE Gulf
Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 21/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from E Cuba near
21N76W to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover the
NW Caribbean behind the front to the Yucatan Channel with seas to
8 ft. No significant convection is present over the remainder of
the Caribbean. Tradewinds are fresh to strong across a large area
of the south central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night. The winds will increase to, or near,
gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night
through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front crosses the NW Caribbean
from SE Cuba to NE Honduras. The front will stall and begin to
weaken Tue morning. Strong high pres building over the western
Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue
through Fri. This will result in strong trades over most of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Gap winds will affect the lee of
Cuba, together with the Mona and Windward passages on Wed and
Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/0900 UTC, a strong cold front in the western Atlantic
extends from 31N67W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 26N. Broken to
overcast low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over the W
Atlantic W of front to Florida. 20-30 kt winds are present on
both sides of the front. A 1020 mb low is over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W. A surface trough extends S from the low to
27N50W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the trough. A
1034 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N33W.

Over the W Atlantic, expect the cold front to continue SE and
then stall from N of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage by
Wed evening. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N
on Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the front. These
winds will persist until Thu as the strong high following the
front slowly shifts E over the western Atlc north of the area.
Another strong cold front will move off the Florida coast on Thu
afternoon. Gales will be possible along the front N of 30N. The
front will reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to
central Cuba Fri afternoon, then from near 31N69W to the SE
Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night. Strong NW to N winds and
building seas will follow in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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