[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W as of 20/0900 UTC. ASCAT data and
recent surface observations indicate that gale force winds are
occurring S of 21N W of 95W. The gale will continue tonight over
the western Gulf of Mexico, diminishing below gale this morning.
Strong winds will then taper off across the basin from west to
east on Sunday night.

...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

Southerly winds will increase over the western Atlantic tonight
ahead of the cold front that is currently moving eastward over N
Florida. The cold front will move into the Atlantic shortly, and
reach from 30N65W to SE Cuba Monday morning. Gale force winds are
forecast to begin on 20/1200 UTC N of 28N up to 120 nm E of front.
Seas will build to over 20 feet.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03S-03N between 20W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from Jacksonville
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf, together with
central and south Florida, moving E. Refer to the section above
for more details on the gale.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front N of
21N until the front exits SE of the Gulf later this morning.
Gales will continue along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz until
around sunrise this morning. Surface ridging southward over the
Gulf will shift E and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop
in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return
flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night. Another
strong cold front could enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning
and introduce another round of gales to the Mexican coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches
of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. The
trade winds are strongest over the central Caribbean. A Gale is
presently ongoing along the coast of N Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night and increase to near gale or
gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night
through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
Sea later this morning, then move SE and extend from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still
extend from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on
Monday night, and then start to weaken and drift N from Cuba
westward from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. Fresh to strong
NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are expected W of the front, from
Sunday morning until Monday night. Strong high pres building over
the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the
basin Tue through Thu. As a result, strong winds will affect
almost all of the eastern and central Caribbean during this time
frame.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is along the coast of
Florida N of 25N and W of 78W, to include the N Bahamas. Upper
level diffluence over the W Atlantic is also producing scattered
showers elsewhere N of 25N and W of 68W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 22N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 21N-34N between 43W-50W. A 1033 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 34N29W.

Over the W Atlantic, The cold front will reach from 31N72W to the
coast of Cuba near 23N80W tonight, from 30N65W to 26N70W to the
coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday morning, from 27N65W to the
coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday night. The front will begin
weakening and become stationary on Tuesday afternoon from 23N65W
to near the Windward Passage. Minimal gale force winds will be
possible on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 65W from
this morning through Monday morning. Seas will build to near 20
feet in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tues. Strong
winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high
pressure builds to the N of the front. These winds will persist
through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts E over the
western Atlc near 35N. The next cold front should push E from
Florida on Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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