[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front extends from Mobile Alabama to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96.5W as of 19/2100 UTC. ASCAT data from this
morning and recent surface observations from late this afternoon
indicate that gale force winds are occurring over most of the area
west of 92W in the northern Gulf and west of 94W in the southern
Gulf of Mexico. The gales will continue tonight over the western
Gulf of Mexico, diminishing below gale by early Sunday morning.
Strong winds will then taper off across the basin from west to
east on Sunday night.

...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

Southerly winds will increase over the western Atlantic tonight
ahead of the cold front that is currently moving eastward in the
Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move into the Atlantic east
of Florida on Sunday morning, and reach from 30N65W to SE Cuba
Monday morning. Gale force winds are forecast N of 28N on both
sides of the front early Sunday through early Monday as the front
moves eastward. Seas will build to over 15 feet N of 28N east of
75W behind the front Sunday afternoon into Monday.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 02N13W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are near and within 120 nm north of the
monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 14W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 270 nm north
and 180 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from just east of
Mobile Alabama near 30N88W to the coast of Mexico near 20N96.5W,
then continues inland over central and northern Mexico. A line of
strong thunderstorms accompanies the front north of 26N.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are seen farther east over the
NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are elsewhere along and
within 120 nm ahead of the front. A reinforcing cold front is
analyzed roughly 90 nm behind the first cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico. Both cold fronts are moving quickly eastward. A 19/1518
UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds over the Gulf of Mexico west
of the second front. Refer to the section above for more details
on the gales.

The main cold front will extend from South Florida to the Yucatan
Channel early Sunday morning and exit the Gulf of Mexico by late
Sunday morning. Strong winds will taper off across the basin from
west to east on Sunday night. A surface ridge from the N will
shift E and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the
western Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow
will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night.
Another strong cold front may enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches
of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. The
trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds will continue in the S central Caribbean Sea
through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale force near
the coast of Colombia each night through Wednesday. Refer to the
section above for more details. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the
NW Caribbean on Sunday morning, move SE and extend from central
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday night and from SE Cuba to E
Honduras Monday. The front is forecast to stall and weaken on
Tuesday. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are
expected W of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mid to upper level SW wind over the Gulf of Mexico is pushing
moisture over the western Atlantic, leading to isolated to
scattered showers to the north of the Bahamas. To the east, two
surface troughs are located over the central Atlantic, one from
23N59W to 32N56W and the other from 21N53W to 29N48W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is occurring from 24N-31N between
44W-53W, mainly due to an upper-level trough in the area. High
pressure dominates the area east of 35W, anchored by a 1032 mb
high near 34N28W.

Southerly winds will strengthen tonight ahead of a cold front that
will move east of Florida on Sunday morning. The front will reach
from 31N72W to 23N80W Sunday night, from 30N65W to 25N71W to SE
Cuba Monday morning, and become stationary on Tuesday from 24N65W
to Haiti. This weather system will produce gales and high seas
over portions of the area. See section above for details. Strong
winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tuesday, as strong
high pressure builds to the N of the front. Winds will subside on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front weakens and high pressure
shifts E.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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