[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean will continue to induce
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia. Gale force winds are to end on 19/1200 UTC and
forecast to start again tonight on 20/0300 UTC and then end again
on 20/1200 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico today, and should move quickly southeastward. The front
is expected to clear the entire Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning.
Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale force,
are expected behind the front this afternoon through Saturday
night over the western Gulf of Mexico.

...GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the
western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that
will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly and
southwesterly winds are forecast to reach gale force east of
northern Florida and Georgia prior to and along with the cold
front by early Sunday morning. These gales will migrate eastward
into Sunday night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05S-03N between 17W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N73W. 10-20
kt southerly return flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds
over the NW Gulf. A cold front is over S Texas moving towards the
Gulf. Broken low clouds are presently over the N Gulf N of 27N.
Sea fog is likely this morning over the N Gulf in advance of the
cold front.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely precede the cold
front as it crosses the Gulf. Winds to gale force are expected
behind the front near Tampico this afternoon and near Veracruz
tonight. The front will extend from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W
tonight, then exit from the Gulf Sun morning. This will allow
strong winds to taper off across the basin by sunrise on Monday.
High pressure ridging over the Gulf from the N will shift E and
allow strong SE to S return flow to develop over the western Gulf
by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow will expand to the
eastern Gulf Tue night. Another strong cold front could enter the
NW Gulf Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical
patches of low clouds and some embedded isolated showers exist
across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the
Cayman Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. The winds will increase to
gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and
Saturday night, and then again each night Mon, Tue, and Wed.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, push SE
and extend from Haiti to NE Nicaragua Mon night, then stall and
weaken on Tue. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are
expected W of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N73W. A
surface trough is E of the Bahamas from 28N72W to 23N72W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1021 mb high
is centered near 28N66W. A 1016 mb low is further E near 27N59W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. Another 1016 mb low
is centered near 25N52W. A surface trough extends NE from the low
to 30N47W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A
1032 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. Of note
in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central
Atlantic N of 20N between 45W-65W supporting the two surface lows.

Over the W Atlantic, weak high pressure will drift eastward from
near 30N73W toward Bermuda today. Winds will veer to the S, and
then strengthen this afternoon through Sunday morning E of Florida
ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will push off the
Florida coast Sunday morning, then reach from 31N68W to central
Cuba Sunday night, from 26N65W to northern Haiti Monday afternoon,
then become stationary from 22N65W to the NW Dominican Republic
Tuesday night. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either
side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W Sun through Mon. Seas
could build to 20 feet in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on
Tuesday. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on
Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. Winds
will subside Tue night and Wed as the front weakens and high
pressure to the N shifts E.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net