[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure caused by a surface high pressure system north
of the area over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
South America is expected to cause strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean Sea. These winds are forecast to reach
gale force during the night time hours during the next couple of
days when the pressure gradient is strongest.

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico by Saturday morning, and it should move quickly
southeastward. The front is expected to clear the entire Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday morning, bringing a much cooler air mass in its
wake. Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale
force, are expected behind the boundary.

...GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the
western Atlantic on Saturday ahead of the cold front that will be
moving over the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient
between the front and high pressure over the central Atlantic is
forecast to cause southerly winds to reach gale force off the
northern Florida and Georgia coast by Sunday morning.

For additional informtation on all of these warning areas, please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point and dips
below the equator near 22W and extends to the coast of Brazil near
3S43W. Scattered moderate convection exists from the equator to 5N
between 11W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection also exists
within 240 n mi north of the ITCZ between 26W and 41W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough marked by a line of low-level clouds extends
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, surface high
pressure and fair weather exists across the remainder of the
region. The high is also allowing winds to be light across the
area, except over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico where southerly
winds are beginning to increase ahead of a low pressure system
currently over the south-central United States.

The high pressure system is expected to shift east of the area on
Saturday as a strong cold front moves over the northwestern
waters with gale force winds forecast to occur behind it. See
above for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical
patches of low clouds and perhaps some embedded isolated showers
exist across the region. The trade winds are strongest near the
coast of Colombia, and they are expected to reach gale force
during the night time hours this weekend. See above for more
details. Otherwise, winds are light to moderate across the
remainder of the area.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of troughs exist across the subtropical Atlantic. The
weakest one of the group lies over the northwestern Bahamas, and
this feature is only producing disorganized cloudiness near its
axis. Another trough or weak surface low lies just to the
northeast of the central Bahamas, with a few showers likely from
23N to 27N between 70W and 73W. A weak 1018 mb surface low lies
over the central Atlantic near 26N 60W, with no significant
cloudiness noted in satellite images. More significant showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms are located farther east north of 25N
between 45W and 49W, primarily associated with an upper-level
trough. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic supported by
a 1032 mb nar 34N 28W.

The big weather event this weekend is expected to be associated
with a strong cold front that is forecast to move over the far
western Atlantic on Sunday. Gale-force winds are forecast ahead
of this boundary. See above for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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