[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the SW Caribbean will increase to
30 kt near the Colombia coastline this evening. However, surface
ridging building north of the Caribbean will enhance the
tradewinds up to minimal gale at night through Monday. Please
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near
05N09W and extends to 04N18W to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 01N40W to the coast of South America near 02N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of
the ITCZ. No significant deep convection is present along the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern
U.S. forcing moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf that shifts
anticyclonically from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the
western. Surface data indicate a trough continues to extend from
Texas adjacent waters near 28N94W to the western Bay of Campeche
near 19N96W supporting scattered to isolated in the SW Gulf. High
pressure will dominate the basin through Fri night when fresh to
strong S return flow will develop over the western Gulf ahead of
a strong cold front expected to reach the NW Gulf Sat evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Winds
to gale force will be possible behind the front Sat night and Sun
morning near Tampico and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds dominate across the Caribbean
waters along with patches of shallow moisture supporting passing
showers over the NE Caribbean Antilles and the Gulf of Honduras.
In the SW basin, however, fresh to strong winds prevail mainly
along the coast of Colombia where winds will increase to near gale
force early this evening and to minimal gale force every night
through Monday. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean
Sun through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun
morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high centered just N of the Florida Panhandle extends a
ridge SE to the SW N Atlc waters where two surface troughs
prevail. The westernmost trough extends from 29N78W SW to the
Straits of Florida near 23N81W and lacks convection. The
easternmost trough extends from 27N71W across the central Bahamas
to eastern Cuba. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant shallow moisture
associated with it, which is supporting isolated showers over the
central and southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. Farther to the
east, this convection is enhanced by the tail of a cold front that
extends from 30N51W to 28N56W where it stalls and continues to
23N65W. Scattered showers associated with this front cover the
area N of 24N between 47W and 61W. A strong surface ridge centered
in the Azores Islands cover the remainder central and eastern Atlc
supporting fair weather. Otherwise, a strong cold front will push
off the Florida peninsula Sun afternoon. The front will extend
from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night, then from 31N66W to 22N78W Mon.
Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the
front N of 29N Sun and Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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