[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia from 10N to
12.5N between 74W and 77W, and last until 15/1800 UTC. The gale
is forecast to resume on 16/0600 UTC, and end again on 16/1800
UTC. See the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04N-04S
between 25W-37W north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure remains in control across the Gulf of
Mexico with moderate to fresh winds across central and western
Gulf. Fair weather prevails across the basin with broken to
overcast clouds.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf
by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW
Gulf by late Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the upper levels, a ridge is in control across the Caribbean,
with subsidence covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Latest
Scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate E winds across
Eastern and Southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong ENE winds
are off the coast of Colombia from 13N-09N between 72W-77W.
Scattered showers are possible over the NW Caribbean along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula N of 17N and W of 84W. Further S,
scattered showers are over Guatemala.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends south across the W Atlantic from 31N62W to
25N69W to the north-central Bahamas near 24N77W. Scatterometer
data shows moderate to fresh NW winds behind the cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the
front north of 28N. Further east, a 1018 mb low is centered over
the central Atlantic near 33N47W. A cold front extends S from the
low to 27N50W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front.
There are two surface trough, one extends from 21N45W to 14N47W.
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. The
second trough is located near 30N27W to 25N22W. No significant
weather is present.

A cold front extending from 29N65W to the Bahamas will reach from
27N65W to the southern Bahamas on Wed, then stall and weaken from
26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thu. A reinforcing surge of cool
air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas Wed night
and Thu. Southerly winds will strengthen Sat and Sun east of
Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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