[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale is forecast along the coast of N Colombia from 10N to
12.5N between 74W and 77W on 15/0600 UTC, and last until 15/1800
UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 16/0600 UTC, and end again
on 16/1800 UTC. See the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01S22W to 02S30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04S-03N between 32W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/2100 UTC a dissipating cold front has basically just
exited the Straits of Florida. A 1034 mb high is centered over NE
Texas near 34N86W. 10-20 kt NE surface winds are over the Gulf of
Mexico with strongest winds along the N coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds are over the NE
Gulf. Elsewhere, a surface trough is off the coast of Tampico
Mexico from 22N98W to 20N95W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm
of the trough.

High pressure in the wake of the dissipating cold front will
dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Fri night ahead
of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Sat.
Gale conditions are possible behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends from W Cuba
near 23N81W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W to the SE Bay
of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered showers are over the NW
Caribbean N of 19N and W of 84W. Further S, scattered showers are
over Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Caribbean, while a trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong
subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea and Central America.

A Gale Warning is in effect along the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail in the south- central Caribbean
Sea through Fri night, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will
reach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at night.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will generally prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 28N70W
to 26N75W. A dissipating cold front continues to W Cuba near
23N81W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the cold front. A
1018 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N47W. a
cold front extends S from the low to 31N45W to 28N51W. Scattered
showers are within 30 nm of the front. A 1016 mb low is centered
over the E Atlantic near 27N24W with no significant weather.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will extend from 31N62W to
27N72W to 23N79W tonight, then from 27N65W to the central Bahamas
by early Tue afternoon, and from 25N65W to the SE Bahamas by
early Wed afternoon. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on
either side of the front N of 29N through tonight with building
seas of 8 to 10 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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