[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges over the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N13W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed south of 06N between 18W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
extending from 26N87W to 24N85W is producing some shower activity
in its vicinity. Otherwise, a 1021 mb surface high is centered
near 28N89W and extending across the basin. The surface high is
causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and low seas across
the majority of the area.

The high pressure will shift east over the forecast waters during
the next couple of days. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold
front entering the northern Gulf tonight, then moving southward
over the Gulf through Thursday night. High pressure will then
prevail over the forecast waters through Friday night. The next
cold front is expected to move into the northwest gulf on Saturday
followed by fresh northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows a small area of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Caribbean from 14N to 18N between 80W and
83W. This activity is primarily associated with an upper-level
trough that extends across this area. Elsewhere, typical patches
of low clouds and scattered showers exist area-wide. The trade
winds are strongest, ranging in the fresh to strong categories,
in the typical spot near the coast of Colombia due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure over South America. These conditions will prevail during
the overnight hours.

Little change is expected through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1025 mb high
centered near 34N62W. A surface trough near the northwest Bahamas
from 27N78W to 24N77W producing scattered showers in this area. To
the east, a cold front extends from 32N37W to 21N59W, then becomes
weak from that point to 23N70W. Scattered showers are present
near the boundary, mainly north of 27N. Weather conditions are
fairly quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic where weak
high pressure dominates. The only exception is an area of showers
north of 27N between 28W-31W, which is associated with an upper-
level low and a surface trough.

Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida
tonight and Wednesday. The front will reach from Bermuda to
central Cuba late Wednesday, and from 26N65W to the Windward
Passage by late Thursday before stalling and becoming diffuse
from near 24N65W to northern Haiti Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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