[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 03N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N25W to 01N40W to Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
from 03N-11N between 07W-19W. Isolated moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 04S-04N between 19W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 30N86W. Clear skies cover the NE Gulf and Florida, with
partly cloudy conditions over the western and southern Gulf. 10-15
kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf.

High pres will prevail over the forecast waters through midweek.
Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering the
northern Gulf Wed and moving across the eastern Gulf through Thu.
Low pres may develop in the NW Gulf along a developing cold front
by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to
the NW Caribbean near 20N81W, and a dissipating stationary front
continues to 19N84W. A sharp upper-level trough is also over the
NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers with isolated
thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean and Honduras N of 15N and
W of 80W. The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure
north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh
to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Latest
scatterometer data shows an area of 20 to 25 kt north of Colombia
from 11-12.5N between 74W-77W.

The dissipating stationary front over the far NW Caribbean will
wash out tonight. Broad high pressure NE of the area will
maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean
through mid week, diminishing some by the end of the week as the
high weakens. The highest winds are expected near coast of
Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to the central
Bahamas near 23N75W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm NW of the
front and within 60 nm SE of the front. A 1022 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 27N48W. Another cold front is over
the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 24N36W and transitions to a
dissipating cold front from that point to 22N44W. Scattered
showers are present along and within 90 nm east of the front north
of 25N and east of 31W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will move eastward, gradually
becoming stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas Tue,
then becoming diffuse Wed. Another cold front will move into the
waters off NE Florida Tue night and Wed, and reach a position
from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the
Windward Passage by late Thu. The front will stall and become
diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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