[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W to
02N40W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 22W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/0300 UTC, a cold front has just exited the Straits of
Florida. A 1023 mb high is over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N91W. Elsewhere, overcast low clouds are over the western
Bay of Campeche and S Mexico banking up along the E slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains. 10-15 kt anticyclonic winds are over the
Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northern Gulf Wed, and
move into the central Gulf through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A prefrontal trough extends from central Cuba near 22N80W
to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. A tight surface pressure
gradient between a W Atlantic 1024 mb high located near 27N56W and
a 1008 mn low centered over N Colombia is producing fresh to
strong winds across much of the central Caribbean, with highest
winds near the coast of Colombia. Latest altimeter data indicate
seas of 9-11 ft near the coast of Colombia.

The cold front over the far NW Caribbean will stall and become
diffuse through Sun. Meanwhile expect fresh to strong winds
across the central Caribbean through mid week, with highest winds
near the coast of Colombia at night. Shallow moisture embedded in
the trade wind flow will move across the region producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to W Cuba near
23N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of
the front to include over the central Bahamas. 20-25 kt surface
winds are on both sides of the front. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the W Atlantic near 27N56W and extends a ridge to near the
central Bahamas. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N32W to 28N35W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate convection is N of
23N between 24W-35W.

Over the W Atlantic, expect the W Atlantic cold front to move
eastward, gradually becoming stationary along roughly 24N east of
the Bahamas by Tue, then become diffuse through Wed. Another cold
front will move into the waters off NE Florida Wed, and reach a
position from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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