[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 04N08W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to 02N30W
to 01N40W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. An
elongated upper-level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to
13N54W. Upper-level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across
the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region
at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-03N between 03W-
14W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N- 06N
between 15W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from E of Jacksonville
Florida near 30N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N82W to the
N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N90W to S Mexico near 18N92W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of
the front N of 26N. 20-25 kt W to NW surface winds are over the
NE Gulf W of front. 10-20 kt SW surface winds are over the SE Gulf
E of front.

The current cold front will move SE of the basin by Sat night.
Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft W of the front overnight will
diminish on Sat. Another cold front will reach the northern Gulf
on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds are noted throughout the Caribbean sea with scattered
showers over the Leeward islands and over W Cuba.

Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the central
Caribbean through Tue, with highest winds near coast of Colombia
at night. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean
on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N61W. Two cold
fronts are N of 30N over the central Atlantic. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 30N between 35W-41W. A surface trough is over
the E Atlantic from 32N29W to 25N30W. This trough also has an
upper level trough above it.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will reach from 31N72W to
Miami FL on Sat, from near Bermuda to Cuba Sat night, then stall
and weaken from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas Sun and Mon. Another cold
front will move into the waters off NE Florida on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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