[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1201 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N32W
and 02N41W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 00N40W. An
elongated upper- level trough extends WSW from 21N29W to 21N36W to
13N54W. Upper- level SW wind flow ahead of the trough cuts across
the ITCZ and is providing upper-level divergence over this region
at the same time it is shearing the convection. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present within within
60 nm either side of a line from 03N23W to 02N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 07S to 03S between 25W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves SSW from near Pensacola Florida to the
central Gulf waters near 24N89W to 22N92W, then continues as a
stationary front to Coatzacoalcos Mexico near 18N94W. W of 90W
cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and N of the front to
23N. E of 90W numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
taking place along and up to 150 nm to the SE of the front.

The current cold front will continue pushing slowly eastward
during the next two days. The front will reach from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then from the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Fresh to
strong winds and seas to 8 feet, will follow in the wake of the
front through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish to the west of
the front tonight and Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad deep-layer high pressure ridging SW over the basin from the
central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong winds and relatively
dry weather over the basin through Sat night. The fastest wind
speeds will be present during the nighttime hours near the coast
of Colombia. A cold front will stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean Sea Sat night and Sun. Wind speeds and the sea heights
will diminish through early next week as the high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends SW from 32N34W to 29N39W,
then continues W as a weakening warm front to 28N49W to 30N53W.
This boundary has no significant convection associated with it.

A cold front passes through 32N29W to 24N31W, then continues as a
dissipating cold front to 21N34W. Cloudiness and isolated rain
showers are occurring along and up to 240 nm E of this front and N
of 26N.

Surface high pressure measuring 1024 mb is centered over the west
central Atlantic Ocean near 24N57W. This high will shift slowly
eastward through Monday. A cold front, moving off the coast of NE
Florida tonight, will reach from Bermuda to Cuba on Saturday
night, then stall from near 26N60W to western Cuba Sunday and
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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