[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 02N31W
and 02N40W. An elongated upper-level trough extends WSW from
21N29W to 21N36W to 13N54W. Upper-level SW wind flow ahead of the
trough cuts across the ITCZ and is providing upper-level
divergence over this region at the same time it is shearing the
convection. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 06S to 03S between 20W and 32W...from 03N to 06N
between 09W and 12W and within within 60 nm either side of a line
from 03N28W to 02N44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The latest cold front to enter the basin curves SSW from near the
Mouth of the Mississippi over the central Gulf waters near 24N91W
to just SE of Veracruz Mexico near 18.5N95.5W. Cloudiness and
patchy rain are found along and up to 180 nm to the NW of this
boundary. A line of showers and thunderstorms is present along and
up to 45 nm ahead of the front to the N of 28N.

The current cold front will push eastward during the next two
days. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, then from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds and seas
to 8 feet, will follow in the wake of the front through tonight.
Winds and seas will diminish to the west of the front tonight and
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad deep-layer high pressure over the basin will maintain fresh
to strong winds and relatively dry weather over the basin through
Sat. The fastest wind speeds will be present during the nighttime
hours near the coast of Colombia. A cold front will stall and
weaken in the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The wind speeds and
the sea heights will diminish during the weekend as the high
pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N35W to
27N49W to 30N53W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated rainshowers are seen to the north of the front to beyond
32N.

A stationary front passes through 32N30W to 25N32W to 19N39W, then
continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 16N45W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N
northward between 20W and 31W.

Surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will
weaken and shift eastward through Sunday. A cold front, moving
off the coast of NE Florida tonight, will reach from Bermuda to
Cuba on Saturday night, then stall along 23N on Sunday and
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net