[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
03N23W, to the Equator along 42W, and continuing along the Equator
along 46W. Upper level SW wind flow cuts across the area of the
ITCZ, along 05N52W beyond 10N39W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are to the east of the
10N39W-to-05N52W line.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary weaves over the NW Gulf from
just SE of Mobile Alabama to 28N91W to 1010 low pres centered E
of Corpus Christi Texas near 27.5N95W to near Tampico Mexico.
Patchy rain is occurring N of the front within 120 nm of the
coasts of Texas and Louisiana between 90W and 95W. Ridging
extending WSW from central Florida to near Veracruz Mexico is
maintaining fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf to the SE
of the front.

Reinforcing cold air will force the current frontal boundary
eastward, during the next few days, as a cold front. The cold
front will extend from Mobile AL to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
tonight; from central Florida to Yucatan peninsula Fri night;
then sweep SE of the Gulf on Sat. Fresh to strong winds will
follow the front across the western Gulf tonight and Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish Fri night and Sat west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of an old stationary front passes from the Atlantic
Ocean across Guadeloupe to S of Hispaniola near 17N71W.
Shallow clouds and isolated showers are found along and up to 60
nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, deep-layer high pressure is
restricting deep convection over the remainder of the basin.

Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic
will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean
through Fri, with near gale-force winds possible at night near
the Colombia coast. A cold front will stall and weaken in the NW
Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will diminish over the
weekend as the high weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front heads SW from 32N30W through weak 1018 mb low
pres centered near 27N34W to 19N39W, then continues as a weakening
stationary front 15N54W to Guadalupe in the Leeward islands.
Broad high pres ridging NE from Hispaniola to near 32N59W is
inhibiting convection in the vicinity of this boundary.

A cold front is sagging southward over the central Atlantic from
21N43W to 28N54W to 30N62W. This boundary continues as a warm
front from 30N62W to beyond 32N65W. Cloudiness and isolated
showers are evident within 60 nm of this boundary.

Broad high pressure across the west-central Atlantic
will weaken and shift eastward through Sun. A cold front moving
off the coast of NE Florida Fri night will reach from Bermuda to
Cuba Sat night, then flatten out to weaken along 23N Sun and Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
al/cm/mt
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