[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Winds of gale force are likely occurring near the coast of
Colombia this morning, though no observations were available near
the area of strongest winds. Peak winds are forecast to diminish
below gale force around 27/1800 UTC. Strong to near gale force
winds are occurring elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at
website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 03N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ that reaches the equator near
24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring from 00N-04N east of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary frontal boundary extends from central Florida across
the northern Gulf waters to the central Texas coast. A squall line
propagated along the stationary front moving southeastward in the
northeastern Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed north of 26N east of 92W. Away from the
squall line and associated convection, winds are moderate breeze
or weaker across the Gulf. Dense fog has been reported over the
Gulf waters during the morning hours near Texas and Louisiana.

The front will weaken and drift northward through Thu. Areas of
dense fog will diminish some across NW and N central portions of
the Gulf through this afternoon, and then redevelop again
tonight. Weak high pres will then dominate the Gulf through Sun.
Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat night and Sun
across the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning for
the south-central Caribbean Sea, which will be expiring at 27/1800
UTC.

The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb Bermuda high and a
trough over Colombia is producing generally moderate to strong
breeze conditions across the Caribbean this morning with up to
gale over the central Caribbean. Dry air and strong subsidence
cover the entire basin. Scattered showers are moving W with the
trade winds over the NE Caribbean near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

High pressure located just W of Bermuda will shift eastward
through early Thu to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across
the central Caribbean and Atlc passages. Winds will diminish
across all but the southern Caribbean Thu through early Sun as a
weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc. Long period N to
NE swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters and
through the Caribbean Passages Wed through Sat night, then subside
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N40W west-southwestward to 25N60W
where it becomes stationary to near 25N72W. Scattered showers
exist within 60 nm of the front. Winds are moderate breeze or
weaker in association with this frontal boundary. Numerous showers
are currently occurring north just northeast of the Bahamas,
north of 25N between 70W and 77W.

The front will dissipate over the forecast waters late today.
Weak low pressure will develop north of the NW Bahamas tonight and
shift NE and exit the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly
winds on the east side of the low will affect the northern
forecast waters through late Thu. A second low pressure system
will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward
through the weekend, clipping the northern waters. A high pressure
will build modestly westward along 26N during this time.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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