[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Winds of gale force are occurring near the coast of Colombia
early this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force around 27/1200 UTC. Strong to near gale force winds are
occurring elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N11W to 05N16W to
02N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S31W to
the coast of South America near 04S38W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near and within 300 nm S of the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 150 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is also seen from 03S-01S between
40W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico from
27N82W to 29N88W to 28N92W to Freeport Texas to Victoria Texas. An
upper-level trough is located near the NW Gulf of Mexico. Numerous
moderate convection is seen within the box bounded by 30N86W
28N89W 28N91.5W 31N89W 31N86W 30N86W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere N of 28N between 85W-93W. This
convection is enhanced by strong upper-level divergence just east
of an upper trough. Dense fog is currently being reported over the
Gulf waters near Texas and extending inland into coastal Texas.
Reduced visibilities have also been reported near the southwest
coast of Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated showers are seen near the
Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

The warm front extending from central Florida to the central
Texas coastal waters will weaken and drift northward through Thu.
Areas of dense fog will prevail across NW and N central portions
through this morning and then again tonight. Weak high pres will
then dominate through Sun. Fresh to strong return flow will
develop Sat night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of a cold front
that will enter the NW Gulf Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning for
the south-central Caribbean Sea, which will be expiring at 27/1200
UTC.

Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Mid to upper
level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern two-thirds of the
Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving W with the trade winds
over the NE Caribbean near and south of Puerto Rico as well as
over Hispaniola. Isolated showers are over portions of the Leeward
Islands.

High pressure just W of Bermuda will shift eastward through early
Thu to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and Atlc passages. Winds will diminish across all but
the southern Caribbean Thu through early Sun as a weak high
pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc. Long period N to NE swell
will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters and through the
Caribbean Passages today through Sat night, then subside Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the central and western Atlantic.
It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N44W to 29N50W, then as a
stationary front from that point to 24N65W to the NW Bahamas near
26N77W to near West Palm Beach Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen between South Florida and the NW
Bahamas, and from 26N-30N between 74W-81W. Isolated showers are
noted elsewhere along the fronts. A surface trough is along 55W
from 20N-24N with isolated showers. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered near 31N27W.

The stationary front from 24N65W to the NW Bahamas has begun to
drift northward to the west of 70W and will lift to 29N by tonight
before dissipating. Weak low pressure will develop north of the
NW Bahamas tonight and shift NE and exit the area Thu. A second
low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri
and move eastward through the weekend, scraping the northern
waters. A high pressure will build modestly westward along 26N
during this time.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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