[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261137
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic
and lower pressure over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale
force over the south-central Caribbean and reaching gale force
just north of Colombia, mostly at night and early morning. The
trend of diurnally pulsing winds will continue through tonight/Wed
morning. The gale that is currently occurring off the N coast of
Colombia is forecast to end by 26/1800 UTC. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 06N10W to 01N23W.
The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S28W to the
coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen with the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 05W-21W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is from
04S-02N between 30W and the coast of South America. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms cover the area from 02N-03N between
22W-27W and from 04S-01N between 27W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is over the Florida Straits from 24N80W to
24N83W. A warm front continues to 26N90W to 25N95W. Scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms cover the Gulf N of
28N between 83W-88W, including over portions of the Florida
Panhandle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
elsewhere N of 25N between 83W-92W as well as southern portions of
Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Isolated showers are E of
84W and S of 28N, including over portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys. Isolated showers are also W of 92W and along the
coast of Texas. In the southwest Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough
is analyzed from 18N93W to 23N97W accompanied by isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Fresh to locally strong E winds cover much of
the northern Gulf of Mexico E of 93W.

The front across the southern Florida Keys to the central Gulf
will begin to lift N as a warm front across the central and
eastern Gulf through Wed night while dissipating. Active weather
is expected along and N of the warm front during this time.
Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from
Wed through Fri, as high pressure from the Atlantic Ocean builds
westward into the E Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire Caribbean. Mid to
upper level ridging covers the Caribbean. Patches of isolated
showers are moving W with the trade winds near Trinidad, the ABC
Islands and Puerto Rico. The ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows
trade winds near gale force over the central Caribbean Sea south
of 15N to the coast of Colombia and W Venezuela. Strong NE winds
are noted in the Windward Passage and over the SW Caribbean, S of
15N extending to Nicaragua and Panama. Moderate trades are seen
over the NW Caribbean W of 80W from 17N to S Cuba.

High pressure along the SE U.S. coast will shift E across the W
Atlc through Wed behind a stalling Atlc cold front. This will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean,
Gulf of Honduras, and Atlc passages through early Thu. Strong
winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during
the overnight hours through tonight. Long period N to NE swell in
the Atlantic will subside gradually through Wed night, before
another round of long period northwest to north swell propagates
through those same waters beginning late Wed through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N55W to 27N65W to
25N75W and then continues as a stationary front to 24N81W to
24.5N83W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 30 nm S and 90
nm N of the stationary front over the Bahamas, South Florida and
the Florida Keys. Isolated to scattered showers are also occurring
near the cold front E of 75W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 28N40W. A stationary front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N20W to 26N26W to 23N34W. Scattered showers are
seen N of 26N between 22W-25W. A surface trough is ahead of the
front from 31N16W to 26N20W. Scattered showers are near and just
E of this trough.

The cold front from 27N65W through the central Bahamas to the
southern Florida Keys will become stationary and weaken along 25N-
26N this afternoon through tonight, then lift northward across
the western waters Wed and Thu. Strong high pressure along the SE
U.S. coast behind the front will shift eastward across the western
Atlantic through late Wed and then into the central Atlc on Thu.
A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the SE U.S. coast
late Wed, and then shift eastward across the northern waters Thu
through Fri. High pressure will build back toward the WSW
underneath the shifting trough and into the Bahamas late Thu
through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net