[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb central Atlantic high
centered near 28N42W and lower pressures over N Colombia is
forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean
and reaching gale force just north of Colombia, mostly at night
and early morning. The trend of diurnally pulsing winds will
continue through mid-week. A gale is forecast to begin on 26/0000
UTC and end on 26/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 06N11W to 01N24W.
The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 02S32W to the
coast of South America near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 02N-05S between 30W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 24N83W.
A stationary front continues to the central Gulf of Mexico near
24N88W to 24N91W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
are over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 24N-26N between 85W-89W. 15-20
kt easterly winds are now N of the front. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf, E Texas and
Louisiana from 28N-32N between 92W-98W.

Expect the front to weaken tonight. The frontal remnants will lift
back to the north across the central and eastern Gulf as a warm
front from late tonight through Wed night while dissipating.
Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from
Wed through Fri, as high pressure from the Atlantic Ocean builds
westward across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds dominate the Caribbean Sea ranging from near gale
force winds along the coast of N Colombia to 10 kt winds along the
S coast of Cuba. Patches of scattered showers are moving W with
the tradewinds mostly over the E Caribbean E of 70W. More
scattered showers are inland over Costa Rica and Panama. In the
upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the SW
Caribbean near 11N79W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean.

High pressure between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will shift ENE and
into the central Atlantic Ocean through tonight, and then be
replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western
Atlantic Ocean behind a cold front through Wednesday. This will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong
winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during
the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Long period north to
northeast swell in the Atlantic Ocean will subside gradually
through Wed night, before another round of long period northwest
to north swell propagates through those same waters beginning on
Thu and continuing through Sat while it slowly subsides.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N63W to the Straits
of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm NW of
the front. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 28N42W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to
24N33W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm NW of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will become stationary and weaken
near 26N through Tue night. Strong high pressure behind the front
will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through Thu. A
coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S.
on Wed, and then shift eastward across the northern waters through
Fri. High pressure ridging will build back to the west across the
forecast waters near 26N Fri through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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