[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb central Atlantic high
centered near 29N50W and lower pressures over N Colombia is
forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean
and reaching gale force just north of Colombia, mostly at night
and early morning. The trend of diurnally pulsing winds will
continue through mid-week. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 02N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point westward to the coast of South
America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted between 25W and 40W, and between 3N and 5S.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 31N71W, across the Upper Keys, FL, and
onward to 25N85W and is then continues as a stationary front to
the N end of the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of either side of the front, with a burst of
convection around 24N88W. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds are
behind the front.

The cold front extending from the W Everglades, Florida will
reach the Florida Bay to the central Bay of Campeche this
afternoon where it will briefly stall as a stationary front before
weakening. The front will lift northward late tonight through Tue
and dissipate across the NE Gulf of Mexico by late Wed night.
Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico Wed
through Fri as high pressure from the Atlantic builds westward
across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air
throughout the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Patches
of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are moving
westward with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-
force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean, associated
with the Gale warning covered in the special features. Moderate
to locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean.

High pressure between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will shift east-
northeastward and into the central Atlantic through tonight, then
be replaced by a stronger high pressure system moving into the
western Atlantic behind a cold front this afternoon through Wed.
This trend will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several
days. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to
gale force during overnight hours through Tue night. Long period N
to NE swell over the Atlantic will gradually subside through Wed
night before another round of long period NW to N swell propagates
through those same waters beginning on Thu. Refer to the special
features section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwest across the western Atlantic and
into the central Florida coast near 25N80W. Fresh to Strong
NNE winds are North of 28N, within about 300 nm behind the cold
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60
nm of either side of the front. High pressure of 1025 mb anchored
near 29N45W dominates much of the remainder of the western and
central Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of
discussion near 31N25W and extends to 23N36W. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds are occurring within several hundred nm
west and about 200 nm west of the cold front N of 21N.

High pressure ridging extends from near 26N64W westward to Florida
Bay and will shift east-northeastward into the central Atlantic
by this evening. A cold front from 31N70W to Biscayne Bay,
Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by late
morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tuesday
night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across
the western Atlantic this afternoon through Wed night. A coastal
trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed
then shift eastward across the northern waters Thu through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Manougian
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