[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb central Atlantic high
centered near 29N50W and a 1006 mb low over N Colombia is forcing
winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and
reaching gale force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These
overall conditions will continue through mid-week. Please refer
to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 02N22W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America
near 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted 80 to 100 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from central Florida near 26N82W to 23N88W
and is then stationary front north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
23N88W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of either side of the front. Mainly fresh to strong
NE winds are behind the front. A surface trough extends from
22N86W across the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is
observed near the trough axis.

A cold front extending from near Boca Grande, Florida to near
21N93W to the central Bay of Campeche will reach the Florida Bay
to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, where it will briefly
stall. The weakening front will lift northward late tonight
through Tue and dissipate across the NE Gulf of Mexico by late Wed
night. Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of
Mexico Wed through Fri as high pressure from the Atlantic builds
westward across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air
entrenched in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Only
patches of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are
moving W with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-
force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean.

High pressure between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will shift east-
northeastward and into the central Atlantic through tonight, then
be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western
Atlantic behind a cold front this afternoon through Wed. This will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong
winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during
overnight hours through Tue night. Long period N to NE swell over
the Atlantic will gradually subside through Wed night before
another round of long period NW to N swell propagates through
those same waters beginning on Thu. Refer to the special features
section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwest across the western Atlantic and
into the central Florida coast near 27N80W. Moderate to fresh
southwest winds are N of 28 within about 300 nm W of the front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of
either side of the front. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near
29N50W dominates much of the remainder of the western and central
Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of discussion
near 31N25W and extends to 20N40W and continues as a dissipating
front to 19N49W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are occurring
within several hundred nm west and about 200 nm west of the cold
front N of 21N.

High pressure ridging extends from near 26N64W westward to the
Florida Keys and will shift east-northeastward into the central
Atlantic by this evening. A cold front from 31N74W to Fort Pierce,
Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by late
morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tuesday
night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across
the western Atlantic this afternoon through Wed night. A coastal
trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed
then shift eastward across the northern waters Thu through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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