[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico and it is
expected to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico
Mexico by Sun morning. NW to N gale force winds are expected
across the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 10 feet from Sun
evening through Sun night. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda high centered
near 26N66W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds
of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-
force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will
continue through mid-week. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250
nm south of the ITCZ between 26W-38W and 38W-44W along the coast
of Brazil north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters extending from 29N92W
to 25N97W. Scatterometer data indicates southeasterly gentle to
moderate across the basin. As the front has moved into the NW Gulf
observations show coastal areas along Texas and Louisiana coast
with no fog. However, observations 150 nm southeast of the coast
of Texas continue to report fog lingering with visibility of 1 to
2 miles and ceilings around 500 feet.

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the central
Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will begin to weaken across the
Gulf of Mexico as the current SW Louisiana-to-NE coastal Mexico
cold front starts to move eastward tonight. The front will reach
from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday
morning, and then stall and weaken from the Florida Keys to the SW
Gulf of Mexico from Sunday night into Monday. The remnants of the
front will move northward, starting on Tuesday. Gale force winds
are expected to the west of the front in the far SW Gulf of Mexico,
from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Refer to the section
above for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1025 mb high and
the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the basin at this time. Refer
to the Special Features section above for details about the Gale
Warning in effect.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days. The wind speeds will increase to
gale force along the coast of Colombia, during the nighttime
hours, through Wednesday night. Long period north to northeast
swell will move through the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
Passages east of 65W through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 27N66W. To the east, a
cold front extends from a deep 954 mb low north of our area
west-southwest to 31N29W to 23N50W to 30N69W. Scattered showers
are present within 90 nm north and south of the front between
23W-34W. A 1016 mb low is near 19N41W with a surface trough
extending from 22N36W to 16N44W. No significant convection is
noted with this feature.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 27N66W, southeastward into the central Atlantic Ocean. The
high center will shift southeastward, slowly, through Sunday
night, and then dissipate. A cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast on Sunday night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Monday morning, before stalling
and weakening along 26N through Tuesday night. High pressure north
of the area, will shift eastward from Tuesday through Wednesday
night, as a trough approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds are expected across much of the
waters from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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