[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland
over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to gale force at night,
over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 36 hours over the central Atlantic
from 31N40W to 29N65W. A gale is forecast N of 27N E of 40W with
seas 16 to 21 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near
06N10W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N23W, and
onward to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 05S to 04N between 20W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to 27N95W
to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Southwesterly winds of 10 to
20 kt and scattered showers are occurring on the N side of the
front. Mainly 5 to 15 kt southeasterly winds cover the remainder
of the Gulf. Overcast low stratus and patchy fog is W of the
front, especially near the Texas and Louisiana coastline.

The front will lift back north as a warm front during the late
morning today. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast
late Sat, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun
evening and from near SW Florida to near 25N89W to the SW Gulf
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widespread fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region
supported by dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the
atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and
perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind
flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean,
while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
the Caribbean.

High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean Sea, and
north of Honduras through the next several days. Gale force winds
will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north
to northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to
the east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before
dissipating Sun through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold
front that enters the discussion area near 26N35W and extends
through 21N55W, onward to 23N56W. A line of clouds and likely
embedded showers accompany the frontal boundary, diminishing in
frequency west of 45W. Scatterometer data show a fairly large
region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with
stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet
over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by surface high
pressure centered north of the region, as well as dry air aloft.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will extend along 28N today as high
pressure currently over Bermuda shifts southward. The center of
the high pressure will shift E and weaken Fri to between Bermuda
and the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving into the
central Atlantic. The western end of the front will stall and
dissipate from 25N65W to 31N70W through Sat. Another front will
move off the NE Florida coast Sun night, before stalling and
weakening along 27N through Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PJM
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