[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland
over Colombia will result in winds increasing to gale force near
the coast of Colombia Thu night into Fri morning. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07N12W to
01N21W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 03S41W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02S to 05N between 02W and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico
extending from 30N91W to a 1009 mb low pressure area over the
southwestern Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. Northerly winds of 15
to 25 kt and scattered to numerous showers are occurring behind
the front. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds
cover the remainder of the Gulf basin. Patchy fog is developing in
the coastal waters east of the cold front over the northeastern
Gulf and this fog is expected to continue through Thu morning,
with low visibilities possible.

The cold front will become stationary from southeastern Louisiana
to Veracruz tonight. It will lift back north as a warm front on
Thu, followed by moderate to fresh southeast flow through Fri
night. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late on
Saturday, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Sun evening and from SW Florida to near 25N89W
and stationary to the SW Gulf Mon. Strong high pressure behind the
front will bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds over
much of the northern and central Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region
supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of
the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and
perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind
flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean,
while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
the Caribbean.

High pressure north of the region will maintain the fresh to
strong trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north
of Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through
Sun night. Please see the special features section above for more
details on this gale event.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold front
that enters the discussion area near 32N32W and extends to
25N50W to 25N65W, at which point it becomes stationary to 28N74W,
then it becomes a warm front to beyond 31N77W. A line of clouds
and likely embedded showers accompany the frontal boundary. Late
morning scatterometer data showed a fairly large region of 20-25
kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with stronger winds north
of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and
tropical Atlantic supported by surface high pressure centered
north of the region, and dry air aloft.

Fresh to strong winds associated with the front will continue to
affect the waters north of the front through tonight. The front is
expected to gradually weaken during the next day or two, allowing
high pressure to dominate the region by the end of the week.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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