[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic continues to build
westward across the Caribbean, which will tighten the pressure
gradient over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale-
force winds pulsing each night across this area and south-central
Caribbean through at least mid-week. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N11W and
extends to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of
04N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 27N96W. A
warm front extends from the low to 29N89W, then becomes stationary
from that point to 29N83W. A surface trough extends from the low
to 22N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts very well these
features. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted north of the
warm front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail
across the remainder of the basin.

The frontal boundary will push northward to the Gulf
coast tonight. A new cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast
Wed and then stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico by
early Thu, before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin, with strongest winds just north of Colombia. Scattered
quick moving showers are moving with the trades over the basin.
Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to
dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward
and Leeward Islands late in the week. No significant cold frontal
passages are expected for at least the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, beginning as a
stationary front from 29N81W to 29N74W, then transitioning into a
cold front from that point to 31N55W. A surface trough extends
from 31N41W to 26N60W. This trough is the remnant of a frontal
boundary. To the east, a 1023 mb high is centered near 25N42W. A
surface trough is noted in scatterometer data extending from
26N31W to 23N30W.

The portion of the front west of 75W will lift north of the area
as a warm front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W
dissipates. Fresh to strong winds associated with the front will
continue to affect the NW waters through Wed evening. Surface high
pressure will become established across the region on Thu and
will prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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