[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and the low
pressure over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale-
force winds pulsing each night along the coast of Colombia and
portions of the southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 04N08W and
extends to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of South America near 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from 04S-05N
between 04W-28W. Similar convection is north of the ITCZ from
03S-01N between 34W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Central Florida to the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W, where it transitions as a
warm front to a surface 1011 mb low pressure near 26N95W. A
trough extends south of the low to 21N95W. Overcast low stratus
and fog are noted west of the low pressure and the surface trough.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds
north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The frontal boundary will push northward to the Gulf coast tonight.
A new cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Wed and then
stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico by early Thu,
before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri. Looking
ahead, another cold front should move off the Texas coast by late
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward
and Leeward Islands late in the week. No significant cold frontal
passages are expected for at least the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 29N74W. A
stationary front continues from that point to central Florida
near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high over the W Atlantic near 27N71W, and a 1025 mb high over the
E Atlantic near 32N20W. A weak dissipating front extends southwest
to 26N56W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across
the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the
central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 30N75W, where it transitions
to a stationary front to Cape Canaveral Florida. The portion of
the front W of 78W will lift N of the area as a warm front through
early Wed, while the portion east of 78W dissipates. A ridge of
high pressure will become established along 28N through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net