[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and
extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the monsoon trough between 10W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a frontal boundary extends across the basin. It is
analyzed as a cold front from 30N83W to 26N91W, then it becomes
stationary from that point to 21N95W. Low stratus and fog are
noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

The cold front will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the
central gulf to near 26N94W tonight where it will completely
become stationary. The front will then lift north toward the
northwest Gulf states through Tuesday evening before moving off
the Texas coast again early Wednesday and stalling over the
northwest Gulf through the end of the week. Expect strong to near
gale-force easterly winds north of 22N and west of the front
through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected west of the cold front on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over
the S central Caribbean through the weekend, reaching minimal
gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week.
Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters
through the weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tuesday
night as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Strong to
locally near gale-force easterly winds are also expected across
the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras,
through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high near 28N38W. This pattern
maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic,
and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Atlantic.

The ridge will prevail across most of the basin maintaining the
same scenario. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
this evening, then stall over the waters north of 27N Tue. The
western part of the front will lift north by Tuesday night, while
the eastern part is forecast to move southeasterly until
dissipating over the southeast waters by mid-week. A surface ridge
will build again and prevail through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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