[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale- force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC
tonight from 11N- 12.5N between 73W- 76W with seas to 11 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N30W to
the coast of South America near 03S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03S-06N between 06W-11W, and S
of 01S W of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast this morning and
as of 1500 UTC extended from near Houston to Corpus Christi, with
areas of low stratus and fog within about 60 nm to the southeast
of the front. Fresh northerly winds are north of the front. The
remainder of the Gulf basin is under moderate to fresh southeast
to south flow between low pressure along the Mexico coast near
Tampico, and high pressure over the western Atlantic that extends
over the Gulf basin.

The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through
Mon, lift N toward the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving
off the Texas coast again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf
through late week. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds N of the
front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

This morning's scatterometer pass and surface observations
indicated fresh to strong southeast winds over the gulf of
Honduras, and moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of
the remainder of the Caribbean basin. Other than some passing trade
wind showers, no significant convection is noted across the basin
as dry air in the mid- to- upper levels continues to dominate the
region.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high
pres builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the S central Caribbean tonight through the next
several days, reaching minimal gale force at night each night
except Wed night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected
across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras, through Thu night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters
E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside
through today, then will rebuild by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb
surface high centered just west of the Azores near 38N32W. This
pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western
Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern
Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then
stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the
front will lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is
forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow
will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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