[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds
are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends
along the N Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time.

Dense fog will restrict visibilities in the NW and N central
Gulf. A ridge and return southerly flow will prevail through Sun
afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf while a trough
develops in the SW and W central Gulf by Sun evening. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf waters while the trough
lingers through Mon afternoon. Then, the front will lift N toward
the northern Gulf states on Tue and the trough will shift
westward, with high pressure prevailing again by Tue night. The
front will move back offshore Wed, then will gradually retreat
again as ridging holds strong. Expect fresh to strong easterly
winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night
through Wed night, reaching minimal gale force at night Sun
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will
gradually subside through Sun, then rebuild by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate
wind flow across the region. A cold front will clip the waters N
of 30N on Sun. Another cold front will move across the waters N of
27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front will
lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain
near 27N. A ridge and return flow will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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