[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W and extends
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters.
Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a moderate to
locally fresh southerly wind flow across the basin. A surface
trough is located along the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to
18N91W. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf
waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico
Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico
by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf
through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters
through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late
Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The
front will move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, reaching from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge builds
across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the
upper-level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola
and adjacent waters. Surface ridging also prevails across the
eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible Western
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N81W to 17N83W and a
second trough further east is near 20N77W to 16N79W. No
significant convection is observed in the vicinity of both
troughs. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades
over the eastern Caribbean while a gentle to moderate trades are
observed west of 80W.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night through Tue night,
with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Mon night. Fresh to
strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean water W of
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Wed night. NE to E
swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands
will gradually subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest scatterometer data indicate a weak high pressure centered
near 28N74W with gentle winds west of 73W. A mid to upper-level
trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the SW
Caribbean with diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level
trough supporting scattered showers from 18N between 56W-68W. A
1011 low press is centered near 31N69W with a surface trough
extending southward to 26N72W. No convection is noted with this
trough. A warm front also extends to the east of the low into the
central Atlantic near 34N45W. The remainder central and eastern
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W.

Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W will keep gentle to
moderate winds across the region. A cold front will move across
the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon.
Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon
afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front is forecast
to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches from the W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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