[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near
02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
from 02N-05N between 11W-16W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted south of the Equator mainly west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure over NE Florida extends a ridge across the
basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no significant convection
noted. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across
the Gulf waters.

Surface ridging will dominate across the Gulf waters through Sun
afternoon. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday evening and extend from the Florida Big Bend through
Tampico, Mexico by Mon afternoon. The front will then stall
across the northern gulf waters through Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across east-central Cuba and the NW
Caribbean from 22N78W to a 1014 mb low near 19N83W to 17N83W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from the Florida Peninsula to the
NW Caribbean Sea to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis,
upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
north of 18N between 78W-82W. Elsewhere, no significant convection
is noted. Fresh to locally strong trades currently cover the
eastern and central Caribbean, east of 75W.

The weak low pressure area near 19N83W will dissipate later today
with a remnant trough prevailing through early Fri. Moderate to
fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters
through Sat night. Winds and seas will then increase in the
southern Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building
north of the area. Near gale force winds are expected along the
coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from Bermuda to a
1014 mb low near 26N74W. A stationary front extends from the low
to east-central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate rainshowers
and isolated thunderstorms cover the area within 240 nm west and
30 nm east of the frontal system, from central Cuba to 31N,
including the central and northwest Bahamas. The western edge of
this activity remains to the east of South Florida. Farther east,
a 1030 mb high is centered near 31N45W, extending ridging over
most of the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends
from 31N20W to 24N30W to 22N40W to 22N44W dissipating to 24N52W.
Fresh to strong winds are behind this front. Scattered moderate
convection is noted N of 30N between 13W-20W.

The stationary portion of the front in the western Atlantic will
dissipate tonight leaving a remnant trough that will move across
the central and northern Bahamas through Fri morning. The low near
26N74W will move NE through early Fri and the front will stall N
of 29N. Fresh to strong winds are expected NE of the Bahamas in
the west and north semicircles of the low through Fri morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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