[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W and extends to 03N13W to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to 02S27W to the coast of Brazil near 06S35W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is inside a box
bounded by 10S35W 04S19W 03N42W 01S46W and along the coast of
South America to 10S35W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
from 02N-05N between 04W-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved SE of the Gulf of Mexico and extends from
25N80W to 23N83W to 20N86W as of 1500 UTC. Numerous moderate
convection is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of a line
extending from 29N83W to 27N85W to 25N87W to 21N87W, including the
Florida peninsula, Florida Straits, western Cuba and the Yucatan
Channel. Surface high pressure is building in over the northwest
Gulf. In between the cold front and the high pressure, strong NE
winds currently cover the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.
These winds will continue today. Southerly return flow will
prevail across the Gulf region from Thursday through Saturday
night. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba near 23N83W
to 21N85W to a 1016 mb surface low near 18N86W, continuing to NW
Honduras near 15N87W to west-central Guatemala near 16N91W.
Numerous moderate convection is N of 18N between 84W-87W,
including over the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. The
convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the
area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere N of 18N
and W of 80W, and in the Gulf of Honduras N of 15.5N and W of 84W.
In the eastern and central Caribbean, no significant convection is
noted. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades over the
eastern and central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights at 8 feet at least,
will continue in the central and south central Caribbean Sea until
Thursday morning. The wind speeds will slow down to fresh, and
the sea heights will diminish to 6 to 7 feet, from Thursday
morning until Saturday night. The fresh to strong winds and the
sea heights reaching 8 feet will return from Saturday night
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic at 1500 UTC extending
from 31N75W to West End Grand Bahama Island to 25N80W to western
Cuba near 23N83W. Numerous moderate convection extends from 30 nm
E of the cold front westward across the Florida peninsula and
Florida Keys to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther E, a cold
front extends from 31N36W to 28N42W to 27N47W to 28N53W to 30N57W.
Strong winds are near and behind this front N of 29 between about
32W-42W. Isolated showers are along and within 90 nm south of the
front. Two weak surface troughs are over the NE Atlantic - one
from 30N28W to 23N35W and the other from 30N24W to 23N23W.
Isolated showers accompany the trough that is farther west.

The cold front that is currently just east of Florida, will reach
from Bermuda to north central Cuba tonight. It is possible that a
weak low pressure center may develop along the front east of the
Bahamas on Thursday, and persist into Friday. The low pressure
center is expected to move NE of the area on Friday night, with a
trough extending south of the low to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights of 8 feet,
possibly as far as 240 nm to the NW of the low center, as the low
center moves NE.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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