[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong northerly
30 to 40 kts wind with seas up to 8 to 10 ft will accompany the
front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of Mexico Tuesday
afternoon, and the SW Gulf Tue night. Please read the High Seas
Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2,
for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale-force wind at
night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night, from 11N to 12N
between 73W and 75W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Please read the High Seas
Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W and extends to 00N17W. The ITCZ continues from 00N17W
to 02S42W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is from 09S-04N between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. Recent
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE return flow
across the basin. Latest surface observations show a mix of low
visibility and low level clouds along the Texas coast with some
reporting rain. Radar imagery shows scattered shower activity
along the Texas coast and near the Florida Keys. A stationary
front is inland over SE Texas with scattered moderate convection
in the vicinity. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather.

Return SE flow under the 1027 mb high pres will prevail tonight,
shifting E by early Tue as a cold front enters the NW Gulf. Gale
force northerly winds are expected offshore of Tamaulipas and
Veracruz Tue afternoon into Tue night. For more details about the
Gale Warning, please see the Special Feature section above. The
front will quickly move across the basin Tue and Tue night,
stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula Wed and Wed night. Return flow under high pres
returns Thu into Fri, breaking down as the next cold front moves
through Fri through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However,
isolated low-topped showers continue across of the basin, mainly
over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Recent
scatterometer imagery shows moderate to fresh east to northeast
winds across southern Caribbean sea south of Jamaica and Hispaniola.
Strong to gale force winds are occurring near northern Colombia
coast with Gale Warning in effect. For more details about the Gale
Warning, please see the Special Feature section above. Moderate
to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean basin.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at
night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trade winds
will weaken slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens
the ridge. The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed
then dissipate. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the
south central Caribbean at the end of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A
cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N33W to
26N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
Isolated showers are noted further east from the front from
24N26N between 25W- 32W. No other significant convection is
present over the Atlantic as ridge remains in control over
much of the basin.

High pres building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E
to SE winds through Tue night, with locally strong winds pulsing
each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE swells E of the Bahamas
will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase E of
Florida Tue night ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida
coast. The front will reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed
night, then weaken and dissipate from 27N65W through the central
Bahamas by late Thu. Return flow under high pres will prevail Fri,
with winds increasing Sat ahead of the next cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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