[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong to near gale NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are along and
north of a cold front that extends from 31N63W to near Vero Beach
Florida. Strong gusts also accompany the front, as cooler air
north of the front flows over the relatively warmer waters of the
Gulf Stream. A gale warning is in effect for another hour or two
for frequent gusts to gale force north of 29N west of 70W. Winds
and seas will diminish through this morning as the front moves
eastward and weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our
website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more
details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the
weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean,
just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and
76W, with seas to 12 ft. The latest ASCAT pass from 10/0152 UTC
shows a sizable area of near gales from 10N-13N, E of 77W, with
gales possibly occurring S of 12N, and E of 75.5W near the coast
of Colombia. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01S-03N between 20W-30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 00N-06N between 05W-20W. Scattered showers are noted
from 01N-04N between 30W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Port Charlotte Florida to
26.5N90.5W. A warm front extends from 26.5N90.5W to 27.5N95.5W to
a 1022 mb low near 27N97W. A stationary front extends S from the
low across the Bay of Campeche to near Coatzacoalcos Mexico. A
surface trough extends over the NW Gulf from the low to 29N94W.
Overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western Gulf west of the
front and north of the front off the coasts of Mexico, Texas and
western Louisiana. In some of these areas, where light showers are
occurring off the coast of southern Texas, the overcast cloud desk
is near the surface, leading to patchy dense fog. Showers are also
noted near Tampa Bay and the adjacent eastern Gulf of Mexico
along and north of the front. Additional scattered showers are
seen in the Florida Straits in between Key West and Havana. The
latest ASCAT pass indicates that winds in the Gulf of Mexico are
fresh to strong.

The front will lift northward today in the central and eastern
Gulf while dissipating, with the western Gulf portion lingering
through today. High pres builds down from the NE tonight, shifting
E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue. Strong
winds will follow the front Tue into Wed, diminishing starting
late Wed as the front pushes just SE of the basin. High pres and
return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. Typical
isolated showers are seen in the vicinity of Cuba, and in the E
Caribbean between 65W-70W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to
locally near gale winds S of Cuba N of 20N between 78W-81W. The
scatterometer pass also shows near gales to locally gale winds
off the coast of Colombia, where a gale warning is in effect. See
section above for details. Fresh trades cover most of the
remainder of the basin.

Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through
Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central
Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trades will
expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning,
including the Windward Passage and waters in the lee of Cuba this
morning through tonight. A cold front will stall near the Yucatan
Channel Thu morning before dissipating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N63W to near Vero Beach Florida. A
gale warning is in effect for another hour or two for frequent
gusts to gale force north of 29N west of 70W. See section above
for details. Scattered showers are along and N of the front, along
with overcast low stratus clouds. Additional scattered showers
are noted in the Florida Straits. A cold front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N30W to 26N40W to 24N50W. Scattered showers are
occurring along and within 100 nm southeast of the front.
Scattered showers are also seen N of 25N between 20W-30W due to
enhanced upper-level diffluence and moisture from the nearby low
pressure system.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will stall and dissipate along
27N/28N through today. High pres building N of the area will
support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of the week, with
strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola. NE
swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will subside by late
Mon. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue
ahead of another cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue
night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida by
late Wed, then from 29N65W to N central Cuba Thu morning before
dissipating across the southern waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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