[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are presently along the coast of N Colombia S of
12N between 74W and 76W with seas 9 to 12 ft. This gale is
forecast to end shortly on 06/1200 UTC. The Gale is to resume on
07/0000 UTC as the surface pressure gradient tightens again. This
process is expected to repeat itself each subsequent late evening
and night through Sun night. Northeast winds are again forecast
to range between 25 to 35 kts with seas around 9 to 12. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC, or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of northern Liberia near 07N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues
from that point to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N-04N
between 18W-21W, and from 03S-08S between 31W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over N Florida near 29N81W. 10-15 kt E
to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest
winds over the NW Gulf. The entire Gulf is void of convection.
Patchy fog is along the N Gulf from S Texas to the Florida
Panhandle. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the
Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture and broken high
clouds are over the NW Gulf. the remainder of the Gulf has strong
subsidence.

High pressure centered over northern Florida will shift eastward
over the western Atlc by Thu as a strong cold front moves across
eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night,
quickly reach from Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Fri evening, then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota, Florida to
near 26N90W and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf Sat. Very strong
high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the
front, with the resultant tight pressure gradient bringing strong
to near gale force northerly winds over the W central and SW Gulf
Fri into early on Sat. Winds diminish and seas subside mainly over
the western and central Gulf Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 20N65W to
15N67W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A gale is
along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 10-30 kt tradewinds are
over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds just S of Hispaniola.
Patches of scattered showers are N of Puerto Rico, over
Hispaniola, S of Jamaica, and inland over Guatemala, Honduras,
and Nicaragua. In the upper levels, the base of a trough is over
Cuba, while a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis along 65W.
Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea.
Seas north and northeast of the Bahamas will slowly
subside on Sun as the front dissipates.
As low pressure over Colombia deepens over the next few days, and
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic, the resultant
tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for gale force
winds to pulse each night through Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate
to locally fresh winds will continue across the basin through Thu
night, increasing to fresh to strong and expanding in coverage
beginning on Fri to include the Windward Passage and the waters in
the lee of Cuba as well.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to 23N66W. A
stationary front continues to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the front N of 24N between 54W-62W.
The convection is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence
to the SE of a large upper-level low centered near 34N63W. A 1032
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 37N37W. The tail end of
a cold front is over the E Atlantic just reaching 31N32W.
Further southeast, a surface trough is present from 28N24W to
23N23W to 20N19W. No significant convection is observed within
the surface trough at this time.

Over the W Atlantic the front will manage to drift E of 65W
through the end of the week while high pres builds down from the
N. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri
night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary
to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very strong high
pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along
with building seas, possibly peaking to around 13 ft, over the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat. Seas north and
northeast of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the front
dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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