[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
557 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 06S-02N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over N Florida near 30N84W. 5-10 kt SE
to S surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery
shows patches of low stratus clouds and fog along the coast of
Mexico W of 96W, and over the N Gulf N of 27N. Scattered showers
are along the coast of Louisiana N of 28N. In the upper levels,
zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence over the
southern Gulf.

The surface high centered over N Florida will shift E over the
western Atlantic by Thu as a strong cold front moves across
eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night,
quickly reach from near Cross City Florida to near Veracruz
Mexico by Fri evening and weaken as it reaches from near Sarasota
to near 26N90W and become stationary to the SW Gulf. Very strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near
gale force north to northeast winds over the waters northwest of
the front Fri through Sat. Gale force northwest to north winds are
possible over the far western and SW Gulf waters Fri and Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. 10-30 kt
trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with
scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, W Honduras, and the
Gulf of Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the
Sea with axis along 70W. Very strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale force at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed
night, then may reach minimal gale force Thu, Fri and Sat nights.
Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
over the basin through Thu night, increasing to between fresh and
strong Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to the S Bahamas
near 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N of
26N between 55W-66W. A 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 38N43W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic
from 31N35W to 29N40W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper
level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N67W. Upper level
diffluence E of the low is greatly enhancing the convection over
the W Atlantic. Likewise, an upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic N of 20N between 38W-48W producing scattered
moderate convection from 29N-32N between 38W-44W.

The W Atlantic cold front will stall from near 20N72W to 24N65W
by Wed morning, then dissipate Thu. High pressure will build over
the waters N of the Bahamas in the wake of the front. The next
cold front will move over the far NW waters Fri night and
introduce strong NE winds to the waters N of the Bahamas by Sat
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net