[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
Near gale-force winds are forecast for the areas called:
AGADIR and CANARIAS

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N10W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 04S30W
to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 06W-15W.
Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from
03S-02N between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N83W. A surface
ridge axis extends S from the high to the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Overcast low clouds and dense fog are over Florida and the E Gulf
of Mexico N of 24.5N, and E of 86W. Overcast multilayered clouds
are over the N Gulf N of 25N, and W of 86W. Scattered showers are
noted on radar along the Louisiana coast. Patches of dense fog
are also along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

High pressure across the area will gradually shift eastward
through Tue night and extend from the western Atlantic
southwestward to the eastern and central Gulf waters by Wed. The
combination of the high pressure and low pressure west of the area
will result in increasing southerly flow over much of the Gulf
beginning late Tue night. The southerly flow will diminish on Thu
as a strong cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will
enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from near Pensacola Florida to
26N93W and to near Tampico Mexico by early Fri afternoon and from
near Cross City Florida to near 25N90W and to near Veracruz
Mexico by early Fri night. Gale force northwest to north winds are
possible in the W central and SW Gulf on Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. 10-30 kt
trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with
scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and
Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea with
axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.

Fresh to strong northeast to east trades in the S central
Caribbean will pulse to near gale force at night near the Coast of
Colombia through Wed night. These trades may reach minimal gale
force Thu night and again on Fri night. Otherwise, mainly moderate
to locally fresh northeast to east trades will continue across
the area through Thu night, but increase to fresh to strong speeds
in most sections beginning on Fri as high pressure over the
western Atlantic strengthens some. Northeast winds will increase
to fresh to strong speeds in the Windward Passage and to the lee
of Cuba late on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low status clouds and dense sea fog is over the W Atlantic, N of
Cocoa Beach to Georgia, W of 80W. A cold front is over the W
Atlantic from 31N72W to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the cold front N of 27N between 64W-
72W. A dissipating stationary front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N41W to 27N45W to 28N64W. Of note in the upper levels, a
sharp upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 22N
between 50W-58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-30N
between 50W-55W.

Over the W Atlantic, strong to near gale force southeast to south
winds are east of the W Atlantic cold front. The front will move
across to 65W through Tue, with the portion north of about 25N
exiting the area on Tue night. The strong to near gale force winds
east of the front will diminish as they shift east-northeast of
the forecast waters late tonight. By Wed, the portion of the front
south of 25N will transition to a weakening stationary front
across the southeastern waters. High pressure will build across
the area in the wake of the front and begin to strengthen some on
Fri. The next cold front is expected to move over the far
northwest waters on Fri night followed by very strong high
pressure.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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