[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N13W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues westward from that
point to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within
130 nm miles on either side of the boundaries east of 20W and
west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb low pressure system was centered over the north-
central Gulf near 28N87W. A stationary front extended
southwestward from the low to 26N92W, and eastward from the low
to 27N84W to 29N81W. The low is well depicted in visible
satellite data. Scattered showers were occurring over much of
the northeastern quadrant of the low, and also in the
sotuheastern quadrant mainly east of 85W.

The low is forecast to weaken and drift eastward across the
northern Gulf today and dissipate on Sunday as upper-level
support shifts into the western Atlantic waters by Sunday
morning. High pressure will build across the area on Sunday and
prevail into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level anticyclonic wind flow, accomanied by
widespread sinking motion and dry air, continues across the
entire basin. Low-level moisture is limited to the eastern half
of the basin in the form of scattered to numerous stable low
clouds. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail over much
of the Caribbean based on ship and land observations.

Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the
next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019-mb low was lcoated just east of Florida near 28N80W. A
stationary front extended southwestward into central Florida and
surface trough extended southward over ther Gulfstream to west
of Grand Bahama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted in radar and satellite data mainly north through east
of the low, and also along and 30 nm east of the trough.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N52W to the
central Bahamas to 25N78W. Widely scattered showers were
occurring along and within 120 nm north of the front. To the
east of this feature, a pair of surface troughs were moving
westward within brisk low-level easterly flow. The first trough
extended from 28N55W to 20N57W, while the second trough extended
from 21N51W to 11N51W. No significant convection was associated
with either trough. High pressure covers the remainder of the
area, anchored by a 1030 mb surface high centered near 35N21W.

The stationary front over the west-central Atlantic is forecast
to gradually lift northward today, and link up with the low
pressure system east of Florida by tonight or Sunday morning.
The stationary front forecast to move slowly eastward tonight
and merge with the offshore trough by Sunday morning. The low
pressure system is forecast to deepen and move northeastward
just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia
on Sunday. High pressure isexpected to build in from the
Carolinas early next week in the wake of the low and front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Stewart
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