[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N,
to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W, curving to
01N35W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 04W and
08W, within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W, and
from 60 nm to 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and
35W.

Precipitation has been active in parts of Brazil, since 31/0200
UTC, from 06S to the coast between 40W and 50W. Some of the areas
of rain have moved into the coastal waters of Brazil, with time,
now from 01N southward from 39W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Large scale SW-to-W wind flow, from 250 mb to 500 mb to 700 mb,
according to the latest GFS model, spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
cold front passes through central Florida near 28N81.5W,
continuing into the south central Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary from the south central Gulf, to a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 21N95W. The boundary continues as a
cold front from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
low level and middle level clouds, and areas of rain or drizzle,
are to the northwest of the frontal boundary, and to the south of
the cold front from 89W eastward.

The current frontal boundary will stall from South Florida to the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico later today. The low pressure
center and accompanying front will move northward through
Wednesday, and then start to dissipate in the northwest Gulf of
Mexico into Thursday. A stronger cold front will move off the
Texas coast on Thursday night. The stronger cold front should
reach from the Florida Panhandle to the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico by Friday afternoon, and push south and east of the Gulf
of Mexico by late Saturday. Expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico in advance of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows cyclonic wind flow
in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea, from Jamaica
westward, with an inverted trough. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence covers the area that is from 08N in Venezuela to 20N
between 60W and 70W, and from 10N to 23N between 70W and 80W.
eastward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between 40W
and 60W.

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W in northern Colombia,
to 06N79W to south of Panama, and then northwestward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is from
10N southward between Colombia and 79W along the coast of Panama.
Upper level SW wind flow is pushing the high level moisture from
Costa Rica and Panama, to 20N near SE Cuba, from 66W westward.

The current Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary will move into the
Yucatan Channel later today and stall, before moving northward
again tonight. High pressure, building to the north of the front
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia
through the week. A stronger front will move through the Yucatan
Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday. Long-
period N swell, propagating through the Atlantic Ocean passages
and the tropical Atlantic Ocean off the Leeward and Windward
Islands, will diminish by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
central Florida near 28N81.5W, continuing into the south central
Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that extends from
Bermuda to 28N73W, to the northern coast of Cuba along 76W.

An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, along 32N31W 22N37W 14N41W 12N44W. A surface trough is
along 31N30W 25N31W 22N34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 20N to 24N between 30W and 37W.

The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary
will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wednesday
afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by
Thursday afternoon, and then dissipate on Friday. A stronger cold
front should move off the NE Florida coast by late Friday, and
then reach the NW Bahamas by Saturday.

$$
MT
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