[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N29W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the ITCZ between 17W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging is seen across most of the Gulf. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough over the central U.S. is sliding eastward.
At the surface, a cold front is beginning to approach the Gulf
coast. In response to this trough and front, the latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the
NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere.

A surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic through the
northern Gulf will shift eastward this morning ahead of a cold
front moving off the Texas coast later this afternoon. The front
will reach from southwest Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late
Monday, before stalling from the Straits of Florida to weak low
pressure near Tampico Mexico by late Tuesday. The low and
accompanying front will dissipate Wednesday and Thursday as they
lift northward over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layer ridging also continues to cover the Caribbean, which
is inhibiting deep convection. Most of the basin remains quiet
with isolated showers moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Scattered showers are also approaching the Leeward
Islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds along
the northern coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong trades across
the central Caribbean. Moderate trades are seen across the rest
of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through
tonight. These winds will diminish slightly through Tuesday as
the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile,
long- period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic
passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and
Windward Islands through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is pushing across the central and eastern
Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is moving eastward across
the eastern Atlantic. This boundary enters the forecast waters
near 31N25W and extends southwest to 24N29W to 18N40W. The tail-
end of the boundary stalls from 18N40W to 18N55W. A shear line
continues from 18N55W to 20N64W to 20N72W to 24N77W. Scattered
showers are noted across the cold front from 24N-31N between 23W-
29W. Isolated thunderstorms have been continuous near the
stationary front from 17N- 19N between 53W-55W for the last few
hours. Light showers are seen across the rest of the boundary and
shear line. In fact, some showers at the tail-end of the shear
line are moving across the Bahamas and south Florida. High
pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb
high near 29N53W.

A ridge of high pressure from Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift
east of the area through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast Monday night. The front will
continue to move southeastward through Tuesday, reaching from
near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wednesday and
before stalling and weakening along roughly 22N through Thursday.

$$
AKR
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